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xiii | |
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xv | |
Preface |
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xvii | |
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3 | (24) |
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4 | (2) |
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6 | (2) |
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6 | (1) |
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Probability and Statistics Background |
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6 | (1) |
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Finance Theory Background |
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7 | (1) |
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8 | (1) |
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Prices, Returns, and Compounding |
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9 | (11) |
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Definitions and Conventions |
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9 | (4) |
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The Marginal, Conditional, and Joint Distribution of Returns |
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13 | (7) |
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20 | (7) |
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Efficient Markets and the Law of Iterated Expectations |
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22 | (2) |
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Is Market Efficiency Testable? |
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24 | (3) |
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The Predictability of Asset Returns |
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27 | (56) |
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The Random Walk Hypotheses |
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28 | (5) |
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The Random Walk 1: IID Increments |
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31 | (1) |
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The Random Walk 2: Independent Increments |
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32 | (1) |
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The Random Walk 3: Uncorrelated Increments |
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33 | (1) |
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Tests of Random Walk 1: IID Increments |
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33 | (8) |
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Traditional Statistical Tests |
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33 | (1) |
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Sequences and Reversals, and Runs |
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34 | (7) |
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Tests of Random Walk 2: Independent Increments |
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41 | (3) |
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42 | (1) |
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43 | (1) |
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Tests of Random Walk 3: Uncorrelated Increments |
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44 | (11) |
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Autocorrelation Coefficients |
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44 | (3) |
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47 | (1) |
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48 | (7) |
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55 | (4) |
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Problems with Long-Horizon Inferences |
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57 | (2) |
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Tests For Long-Range Dependence |
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59 | (5) |
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Examples of Long-Range Dependence |
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59 | (3) |
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The Hurst-Mandelbrot Rescaled Range Statistic |
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62 | (2) |
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64 | (1) |
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Recent Empirical Evidence |
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65 | (15) |
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66 | (2) |
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68 | (6) |
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Cross-Autocorrelations and Lead-Lag Relations |
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74 | (4) |
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Tests Using Long-Horizon Returns |
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78 | (2) |
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80 | (3) |
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83 | (66) |
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84 | (15) |
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A Model of Nonsynchronous Trading |
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85 | (13) |
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Extensions and Generalizations |
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98 | (1) |
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99 | (8) |
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101 | (2) |
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Components of the Bid-Ask Spread |
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103 | (4) |
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Modeling Transactions Data |
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107 | (21) |
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108 | (6) |
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Rounding and Barrier Models |
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114 | (8) |
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122 | (6) |
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Recent Empirical Findings |
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128 | (16) |
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128 | (6) |
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Estimating the Effective Bid-Ask Spread |
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134 | (2) |
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136 | (8) |
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144 | (5) |
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149 | (32) |
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Outline of an Event Study |
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150 | (2) |
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An Example of an Event Study |
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152 | (1) |
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Models for Measuring Normal Performance |
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153 | (4) |
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Constant-Mean-Return Model |
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154 | (1) |
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155 | (1) |
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155 | (1) |
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156 | (1) |
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Measuring and Analyzing Abnormal Returns |
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157 | (10) |
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Estimation of the Market Model |
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158 | (1) |
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Statistical Properties of Abnormal Returns |
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159 | (1) |
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Aggregation of Abnormal Returns |
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160 | (2) |
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Sensitivity to Normal Return Model |
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162 | (1) |
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CARs for the Earnings-Announcement Example |
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163 | (3) |
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Inferences with Clustering |
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166 | (1) |
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Modifying the Null Hypothesis |
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167 | (1) |
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168 | (4) |
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172 | (1) |
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173 | (2) |
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175 | (3) |
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Role of the Sampling Interval |
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175 | (1) |
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Inferences with Event-Date Uncertainty |
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176 | (1) |
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177 | (1) |
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178 | (3) |
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Capital Asset Pricing Model |
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181 | (38) |
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181 | (3) |
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Results from Efficient-Set Mathematics |
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184 | (4) |
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Statistical Framework for Estimation and Testing |
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188 | (15) |
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189 | (7) |
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196 | (7) |
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203 | (1) |
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204 | (4) |
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Nonnormal and Non-IID Returns |
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208 | (3) |
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211 | (4) |
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Summary of Empirical Evidence |
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211 | (1) |
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Illustrative Implementation |
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212 | (1) |
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Unobservability of the Market Portfolio |
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213 | (2) |
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Cross-Sectional Regressions |
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215 | (2) |
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217 | (2) |
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Multifactor Pricing Models |
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219 | (34) |
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219 | (3) |
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222 | (9) |
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Portfolios as Factors with a Riskfree Asset |
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223 | (1) |
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Portfolios as Factors without a Riskfree Asset |
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224 | (2) |
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Macroeconomic Variables as Factors |
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226 | (2) |
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Factor Portfolios Spanning the Mean-Variance Frontier |
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228 | (3) |
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Estimation of Risk Premia and Expected Returns |
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231 | (2) |
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233 | (7) |
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233 | (5) |
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238 | (1) |
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239 | (1) |
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240 | (2) |
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Interpreting Deviations from Exact Factor Pricing |
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242 | (9) |
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Exact Factor Pricing Models, Mean-Variance Analysis, and the Optimal Orthogonal Portfolio |
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243 | (2) |
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245 | (1) |
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Implications for Separating Alternative Theories |
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246 | (5) |
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251 | (2) |
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253 | (38) |
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The Relation between Prices, Dividends, and Returns |
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254 | (13) |
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The Linear Present Value Relation with Constant Expected Returns |
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255 | (3) |
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258 | (2) |
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An Approximate Present-Value Relation with Time-Varying Expected Returns |
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260 | (4) |
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Prices and Returns in a Simple Example |
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264 | (3) |
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Present Value Relations and US Stock Price Behavior |
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267 | (19) |
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267 | (8) |
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275 | (4) |
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Vector Autoregressive Methods |
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279 | (7) |
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286 | (5) |
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Intertemporal Equilibrium Models |
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291 | (48) |
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The Stochastic Discount Factor |
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293 | (11) |
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296 | (8) |
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Consumption-Based Asset Pricing with Power Utility |
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304 | (10) |
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Power Utility in a Lognormal Model |
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306 | (8) |
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Power Utility and Generalized Method of Moments |
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314 | (1) |
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314 | (12) |
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Market Frictions and Hansen-Jagannathan Bounds |
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315 | (1) |
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Market Frictions and Aggregate Consumption Data |
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316 | (10) |
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More General Utility Functions |
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326 | (8) |
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326 | (6) |
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Psychological Models of Preferences |
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332 | (2) |
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334 | (5) |
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Derivative pricing Models |
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339 | (56) |
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341 | (8) |
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Constructing Brownian Motion |
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341 | (5) |
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Stochastic Differential Equations |
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346 | (3) |
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A Brief Review of Derivative Pricing Methods |
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349 | (6) |
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The Black-Scholes and Merton Approach |
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350 | (4) |
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354 | (1) |
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Implementing Parametric Option Pricing Models |
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355 | (27) |
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Parameter Estimation of Asset Price Dynamics |
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356 | (5) |
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Estimating Q in the Black-Scholes Model |
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361 | (6) |
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Quantifying the Precision of Option Price Estimators |
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367 | (2) |
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The Effects of Asset Return Predictability |
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369 | (8) |
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Implied Volatility Estimators |
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377 | (2) |
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Stochastic Volatility Models |
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379 | (3) |
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Pricing Path-Dependent Derivatives Via Monte Carlo Simulation |
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382 | (9) |
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Discrete Versus Continuous Time |
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383 | (1) |
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How Many Simulations to Perform |
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384 | (1) |
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Comparisons with a Closed-Form Solution |
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384 | (2) |
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386 | (4) |
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Extensions and Limitations |
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390 | (1) |
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391 | (4) |
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395 | (32) |
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396 | (17) |
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397 | (4) |
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401 | (8) |
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Estimating the Zero-Coupon Term Structure |
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409 | (4) |
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Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates |
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413 | (10) |
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The Expectations Hypothesis |
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413 | (5) |
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Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Forecasts |
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418 | (5) |
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423 | (4) |
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427 | (40) |
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428 | (14) |
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A Homoskedastic Single-Factor Model |
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429 | (6) |
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A Square-Root Single-Factor Model |
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435 | (3) |
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438 | (3) |
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Beyond Affine-Yield Models |
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441 | (1) |
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Fitting Term-Structure Models to the Data |
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442 | (13) |
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Real Bonds, Nominal Bonds, and Inflation |
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442 | (3) |
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Empirical Evidence on Affine-Yield Models |
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445 | (10) |
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Pricing Fixed-Income Derivative Securities |
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455 | (9) |
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Fitting the Current Term Structure Exactly |
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456 | (2) |
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458 | (3) |
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Option Pricing in a Term-Structure Model |
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461 | (3) |
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464 | (3) |
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Nonlinearities in Financial Data |
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467 | (60) |
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Nonlinear Structure in Univariate Time Series |
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468 | (11) |
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470 | (5) |
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Univariate Tests for Nonlinear Structure |
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475 | (4) |
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Models of Changing Volatility |
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479 | (15) |
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481 | (9) |
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490 | (4) |
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Links between First and Second Moments |
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494 | (1) |
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494 | (18) |
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500 | (2) |
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Optimal Bandwidth Selection |
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502 | (2) |
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Average Derivative Estimators |
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504 | (3) |
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Application: Estimating State-Price Densities |
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507 | (5) |
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Artificial Neural Networks |
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512 | (11) |
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512 | (4) |
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516 | (2) |
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Projection Pursuit Regression |
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518 | (1) |
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Limitations of Learning Networks |
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518 | (1) |
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Application: Learning the Black-Scholes Formula |
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519 | (4) |
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Overfitting and Data-Snooping |
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523 | (1) |
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524 | (3) |
Appendix |
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527 | (14) |
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A.1 Linear Instrumental Variables |
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527 | (5) |
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A.2 Generalized Method of Moments |
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532 | (2) |
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A.3 Serially Correlated and Heteroskedastic Errors |
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534 | (2) |
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A.4 GMM and Maximum Likelihood |
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536 | (5) |
References |
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541 | (46) |
Author Index |
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587 | (10) |
Subject Index |
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597 | |