The Art of Decision Making Mirrors of Imagination, Masks of Fate,9780471497189

The Art of Decision Making Mirrors of Imagination, Masks of Fate

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Edition: 1st
ISBN13: 9780471497189
ISBN10: 0471497185
Format: Hardcover
Pub. Date: 2001-08-30
Publisher(s): WILEY
List Price: $96.00

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Summary

Science reassures, art disturbs (Proverb) This intriguing exploration of underlying forces in decision making takes as its starting point a wealth of high profile decision disasters. In brilliantly readable analyses, Helga Drummond shows how better awareness of the inherent uncertainties of the decision making process could have made the outcomes very different. Examples showcased include: The Hatfield rail crash The Kursk submarine disaster The Challenger disaster The year 2000 fuel crisis The WWII Dardanelles expedition The Barings Bank collapse The Taurus Stock Exchange Project The Hillsborough tragedy The King's Cross underground fire The Millennium Dome This entertaining yet instructive book offers new insight into the realities of decision making, and shows how you can confront them to improve your prospects of success.

Author Biography

<b>HELGA DRUMMOND </b>is Professor of Decision Sciences at the University of Liverpool, UK.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgements xiii
Introduction 1(4)
The questions
5(1)
Ambiguity lurks
6(1)
The imagined world
6(1)
The rutted road
7(1)
Shifting tides
7(1)
The ripening of events
8(1)
`All is human'
9(1)
Are you competent or lucky?
9(2)
The Clock That Struck Thirteen: The Challenge of Sense Making
11(24)
`Two dead fish'
13(4)
Hanged in the middle of the play
17(4)
The clock that struck twelve?
21(3)
The clock that really did strike thirteen
24(3)
The perils of experience
27(1)
Turning a drama into a crisis
28(2)
`It can't be'
30(5)
The Morning After
35(19)
The lantern and the mirror
36(2)
`Oh what have you done?'
38(4)
Rolls meets Royce
42(1)
Divorce your husband without him noticing
43(3)
Sentence first, verdict later
46(1)
The ghosts of Christmas
47(2)
The magnolia years
49(1)
The lantern flickers
50(4)
The Dark Side of the Moon
54(23)
An imagined world
56(2)
Received images
58(2)
The dark side of the moon
60(3)
Love is like . . . ?
63(2)
Hidden possibilities
65(2)
From hell
67(1)
Strangled by a dish of eels
68(3)
All that jazz
71(6)
Ghosts and Shadows: Reflections on Information and Decision Making
77(15)
Green light spells danger
79(1)
Do you understand?
80(3)
Painting God
83(3)
Creating confusion
86(1)
Ghosts and shadows
87(5)
Tricks of Mind
92(14)
Deja vu?
94(3)
Why bad publicity is better than none
97(1)
Weigh anchor
97(2)
`It could be you'
99(3)
`Wow! Grab it!'
102(2)
`Too soon deject and too soon elate'
104(1)
Ending the pain
105(1)
The Essential Lie: Exploring the Myth-making Process
106(21)
Building on mud
109(2)
Dressed to kill
111(2)
Waving the magic wand
113(1)
Writing the hymn sheet
114(3)
Singing from the hymn sheet
117(1)
The essential lie
118(2)
The suspicion of witchcraft
120(3)
`Then came the cat'
123(1)
`An intensity beyond belief'
124(3)
High Tides and Green Grass: The Illusion of Control
127(21)
Illusion
128(2)
`Feel lucky, punk?'
130(2)
Lightning strikes
132(1)
Illusion piles upon illusion
133(3)
Nothing succeeds like success?
136(1)
Fine tuning the odds
136(5)
Water seeping
141(1)
`Like a child's sparkler'
141(1)
`A fire the size of a cardboard box'
142(1)
`Make pumps 4-persons reported'
143(2)
High tides and green grass - in the desert
145(3)
Tales of the Unexpected: Exploring the Paradox of Consequence
148(24)
`Kickback': the paradox of consistency
149(3)
Problems, problems
152(3)
The hunter becomes the hunted
155(1)
Winner's curse
156(1)
The tale of the boilerman
157(2)
The Icarus paradox
159(1)
A runaway bull
160(2)
The tragedy of the commons
162(1)
`It was a crucial decision, it was the wrong one'
163(2)
Brilliant and daft
165(5)
Chance has got nothing to do with it
170(2)
Riding a Tiger: Escalation in Decision Making
172(25)
Mounting a tiger
174(3)
Hidden depths
177(4)
Promises, promises
181(2)
All is human
183(2)
Keeping up appearances
185(2)
Hell hath no fury
187(1)
Money sunk and lost
188(5)
The march of folly
193(2)
Tomorrow and tomorrow
195(2)
`An Ace of Success': Knocking at the Door of Fate
197(19)
The events unfold
198(10)
`An ace of success'
208(1)
Escalation
209(1)
Shifting sands
210(2)
Fiasco becomes inevitable
212(1)
Trusting to luck
213(1)
The fortunes of war
214(2)
The Point of No Return
216(24)
The scene is a dilapidated hairdresser's shop
217(3)
`I've only myself to keep'
220(1)
`Don't clap too loudly'
221(4)
`Crisis, what crisis?'
225(2)
`Drifting idly towards eternity'
227(2)
Red light spells danger
229(3)
Polishing the chains
232(3)
Clutching the pole
235(2)
Skeletons and cobwebs
237(3)
The Art of Decision Making
240(41)
Rising to the level of events
240(5)
A dog is for life
245(3)
Liars serving truth
248(1)
Take a walk on the wild side
249(1)
There's a rumour going round
250(1)
Opposites
250(3)
Look hard and look twice
253(1)
Quacks bawling
254(2)
Buying a `cut and shut'
256(1)
Fortune favours the brave
257(2)
The illusion of alternatives
259(1)
If at first you don't succeed...
260(1)
Escaping to reality
261(1)
Catch a falling knife
262(1)
Do no harm
263(2)
Squeezing hands
265(2)
Blown off-course
265(1)
Creating luck
268(1)
Show some emotion?
268(2)
Puzzled as well as beaten
270(2)
Ils ne passeront pas
272(1)
Loving to death
272(2)
Why ghosts return to haunt
274(3)
The element of surprise
277(1)
Sweet are the uses of adversity
278(1)
The golden chance
279(1)
Time and tide
280(1)
Epilogue: A Dancing Star 281(6)
Transcendent optimism
284(3)
References 287(11)
Index 298

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